Markets Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Currency 99.36 99.04 98.29 97.8 97.31
Stock Market (points) 7344.57 7334 7114 6971 6831
Government Bond 10Y (%) 4.67 4.57 4.48 4.42 4.36

Overview Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.00 1.1 0.9 2 2.2
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.70 1.9 1.8 1.6 2.3
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.30 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 115.00 70 120 60 80
Inflation Rate (%) 3.80 3.9 4 3.8 3.3
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.60 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -60.31 -70 -60 -58 -50
Current Account (USD Billion) -190.70 -220 -250 -270 -270
Services PMI (points) 51.00 50.4 50.6 51 50
Business Confidence (points) 52.70 51 54 50 48
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.60 51.5 51 52 52
Manufacturing PMI (points) 54.50 51.3 50.7 52 51
Consumer Confidence (points) 48.20 49 52 54 55.9
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.50 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2
Building Permits (Thousand) 1363.00 1280 1360 1380 1410
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.60 -3.9
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 123.30 126
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.90 -6.6

GDP Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
GDP Growth Rate (%) 2.00 1.1 0.9 2 2.2
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.70 1.9 1.8 1.6 2.3
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 24174.50 24223 24459 24441 24731
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 24173.70 24226 24497 24560 24730
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 4472.80 4464 4468 4476 4576
GDP from Services (USD Billion) 17630.50 17634 17845 17913 18036
GDP from Transport (USD Billion) 749.30 758 770 761 767
GDP from Construction (USD Billion) 885.00 908 905 899 905
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2408.60 2451 2478 2447 2464
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion) 2549.20 2653 2648 2590 2608
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion) 350.10 347 360 356 358
GDP from Mining (USD Billion) 375.20 373 376 381 384
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion) 208.80 200 204 212 214
GDP (USD Billion) 29184.89 29856
GDP per Capita (USD) 66682.61 68216
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 75491.61 77228
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 2.10 2.3

Labour Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.30 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.5
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 115.00 70 120 60 80
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 123.00 80 85 80 80
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 211.00 220 227 218 190
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1782.00 1870 1890 1900 1850
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 109.00 65 75 60 70
Employed Persons (Thousand) 162622.00 163200 162800 162500 162500
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 7373.00 7450 7560 7640 7640
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.20 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.30 34.2 34.2 34.3 34.3
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 61.80 61.6 61.4 61.5 61.2
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 1.08 1.25 1.2 1.2 1.2
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 9.50 9.7 9.7 9.6 9.7
Productivity (points) 119.58 119 117 116 117
Labour Costs (points) 122.55 123 123 124 124
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 6685.00 6950 6890 6800 6800
Job Offers (Thousand) 6866.00 6850 6700 6650 6650
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 83387.00 85000 98000 73000 73000
Wages (USD/Hour) 32.23 32.56 32.79 33.04 33.31
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 30.10 30.15 30.36 30.63 31.08
Wage Growth (%) 4.10 4 3.9 3.8 3.7
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.90 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
U6 Unemployment Rate (%) 8.20 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.4
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%) 3.60 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 134252.00 133200 133000 133900 133900
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 28413.00 27900 27500 27600 27600
Population (Million) 342.28 344

Prices Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Inflation Rate (%) 3.80 3.9 4 3.8 3.3
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.60 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 333.02 335 338 336 341
Core Consumer Prices (points) 335.42 337 340 342 344
Core Inflation Rate (%) 2.80 2.8 2.9 3 2.8
GDP Deflator (points) 130.62 133 135 136 135
Producer Prices (points) 156.50 156 159 159 161
Producer Prices Change (%) 6.00 5.2 5.5 4.7 4
Export Prices (points) 166.10 170 180 175 169
Import Prices (points) 147.60 148 150 147 148
Food Inflation (%) 3.20 2.9 3 2.8 2.6
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 5.20 4.2 4.3 3.9 3.6
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%) 0.30 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 1.40 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4
Import Prices YoY (%) 4.20 5.4 6.5 3.9 2.4
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 3.50 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.7
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 3.20 3.2 3.3 2.9 2.6
CPI seasonally adjusted (points) 332.41 334 335 336 338
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 357.35 361 364 364 367
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.60 4.2 3.8 3.5 2.9
CPI Transportation (points) 291.75 293 294 295 296

Money Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Interest Rate (%) 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
Money Supply M2 (USD Billion) 22686.00 23190 22870 22650 22650
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 6728502.00 6510000 6530000 6600000 6600000
Proxy Funds Rate (%) 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83 3.83
Private Debt to GDP (%) 142.20 142

Trade Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -60.31 -70 -60 -58 -50
Current Account (USD Billion) -190.70 -220 -250 -270 -270
Exports (USD Billion) 320.86 320 325 340 330
Imports (USD Billion) 381.17 390 385 398 380
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 13626.00 13650 13470 13500 13400
Tourist Arrivals 5412343.00 5490200 5521000 5780000 5580000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.60 -3.9

Business Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Services PMI (points) 51.00 50.4 50.6 51 50
Business Confidence (points) 52.70 51 54 50 48
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 53.60 51.5 51 52 52
Manufacturing PMI (points) 54.50 51.3 50.7 52 51
Composite PMI (points) 51.70 50.6 50.5 51.6 51
Industrial Production (%) 1.40 0.7 0.6 0.5 1
Manufacturing Production (%) 1.30 1 1.3 1 1.2
Capacity Utilization (%) 76.10 76.7 77 77.2 77.1
Durable Goods Orders (%) 0.80 0.3 0.2 0.7 1.2
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) -0.30 0.1 0 1.3 1
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.90 0.4 0.3 0.8 1
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 1.60 0.5 0.4 1.3 1.6
Factory Orders (%) 1.50 0.4 0.3 0.9 1.4
Business Inventories (%) 0.90 -0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4
Wholesale Inventories (%) 1.30 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.8
Bankruptcies (Companies) 24737.00 25200 25100 25400 25600
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 3605.67 3150 3100 2700 2700
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 95.90 96 94 92 95
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) 19.60 -5 -9 -8 -8
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 26.70 9 7 8 11
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 3.00 2 -1 3 2
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points) -0.20 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.2
Chicago PMI (points) 49.20 50 48 49 51
Car Registrations (Thousand) 228.60 200 220 210 220
Car Production (Million Units) 10.69 10.6 10.8 10.8 10.8
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 15.90 15.6 14.7 15 15
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 10.00 -3 -1 4 4

Consumer Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Consumer Confidence (points) 48.20 49 52 54 55.9
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.50 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 0.70 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2
Retail Sales YoY (%) 4.90 2.9 2.2 2.5 3
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 16731.20 16758 16884 16932 17116
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 23429.80 21600 21500 22100 22100
Personal Spending (%) 0.90 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Personal Income (%) 0.60 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 3.60 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.9
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 24.86 7 5 9 9
Bank Lending Rate (%) 6.75 6.75 6.5 6.5 6.5
Economic Optimism Index (points) 42.60 52 50 54 54
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%) 0.50 0.3 -0.1 0.4 0.4
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 1.08 1.08 0.92 0.77 0.77

Housing Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Building Permits (Thousand) 1363.00 1280 1360 1380 1410
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1502.00 1350 1300 1320 1350
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 682.00 650 620 610 610
Pending Home Sales (%) 3.20 2.3 2 0.8 0.8
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 4020.00 3800 3900 3700 3600
Construction Spending (%) 0.60 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2
Nahb Housing Market Index (points) 37.00 36 42 43 48
Mortgage Rate (%) 6.46 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.1
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%) 0.90 0.6 1 1.2 1.4
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 338.15 345 342 341 343

Energy Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Crude Oil Rigs 415.00 430 435 440 440

Government Actual Q2/26 Q3/26 Q4/26 Q1/27
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 123.30 126
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.90 -6.6
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 33.80 34.2